Category Archives: National Economy

Starting to Heat Up in 2018

Bid boards have gotten very full very quickly for Pittsburgh contractors. Much of the work on the streets is small private stuff but there are a few meaty projects, with the prospects of some big projects (UPMC Presbyterian and Shadyside Towers, CMU Skibo Hall, $75 million Altoona High) coming out within the next month or so. Among the projects being bid, the $43 million City’s Edge Apartments in the Lower Hill have gone out for competitive GMP proposals to PJ Dick, Rycon, Mosites.

The Murdoch Building, a 95,000 square foot office and retail building being built by Mascaro, broke ground this month. Fairchance Construction is about to start work on a 138,000 square foot expansion of COE Distributing at the Franklin Commercial Park in Fayette County, being developed by J D & D Enterprises. Dick Building Co. has started work on a new 42,000 square foot Rahal Land Rover/Jaguar dealership in North Strabane Twp. outside Washington PA.

Bobby Rahal Land Rover Jaguar building pad sitework

Dick Building has started sitework on Rahal Land Rover/Jaguar in Washington, PA.

In economic news, the Census Bureau reported that GDP growth was only 2.6% in the fourth quarter, a mild disappointment compared to expectations. For perspective, however, that pace of growth (which was the annual rate too) is an improvement over 2016 and about what could be realistically expected given the shortage of workers. It’s also worth noting that this is the first of three estimates. By the time the final estimate is reached in 2 months, the final figure may hit the 3% that economists expected.

us annual gdp

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Slow Start, Big Promise

The unusually cold weather made for a slow start to the 2018 construction season. Bidding activity has been slow out of the gate too, but the momentum is building. There is news on a couple of large projects people have been keeping an eye on. Siemens Corp. is taking bids on early packages at the $600 million combined cycle plant at Hatfield Ferry in Green Co. Wesex Corp. has started work on the first building at Castlebrook’s million-square-foot industrial park in Big Beaver/Koppel area in Beaver County. The building is a 400,000 square foot warehouse called the Fairlane Distribution Center. Allegheny Health selected the Gilbane/Massaro team to build its new $200 million new hospital in Wexford. At Slippery Rock University, DGS selected the team of Mike Coates Construction, Renick Bros. and Blackhawk Neff to negotiate a final agreement for the new $22 million performing arts center at Miller Auditorium. In other commercial real estate starts, Jendoco Real Estate started work on Building 200 at Settlers Cabin Business Park.

job creation history

News on the economy has been very good to start the year. The government reported that 148,000 new jobs had been created in December, marking the 75th straight month of job gains. Pittsburgh’s job market remained in growth mode in November. The Department of Labor reported that 16,500 new jobs were added from November 2016 to 2017, a gain of 1.4%. Unemployment dropped to 4.8%.

News for the Long Weekend

Most years, the Labor Day weekend brings the realization that the building year is starting to wind down and there follows a flurry of activity. This year that realization either came early or else just the flurry. From amongst the RFP’s for CM services that have been bouncing around, Pitt selected PJ Dick to build its $26.5 million life sciences building at UP-Greensburg campus. PJ was also successful on the $16 million Vincentian Sisters’ independent living facility in McCandless. In Erie, AHN awarded a contract to Massaro Corp. for a fast-track renovation to its 40,000 square foot birthing suites.

This morning, the Census Bureau released two of its monthly economic indicators, both of which showed the economy to be helathy and steady. Construction spending in July hit $1.2 trillion, an increase of 1.8 percent over July 2016. Government data on employment growth was announced this morning also. Non-farm payrolls grew by 156,000 jobs in August. That was below the expected 170,000 jobs forecasted by economists but still a healthy increase given the tight labor supply. Since January 2017, job creation has averaged 177,000 monthly. That’s a sign of employer health and optimism, especially in light of how late in the business cycle the U.S. economy is.

Construction Rescues the Economy

Friday’s report on first quarter GDP was well below economist’s forecasts but hardly a surprise or disappointment (not sure how those two things can be true but…). When you dig into the details you see that without construction spending, the economy would have actually contracted in the first quarter compared to the fourth quarter of 2016. The overall GDP growth number was 0.7 percent but big gains in residential construction (0.5 points) and non-residential investment (1.1 points) added 1.6 points to the growth. The rest of the economy dragged GDP down 0.9 points. Within the non-residential investment number, which includes all business investment, spending on non-residential construction was up 22.1 percent. That means that without construction, the non-residential investment number would have been flat or worse.

Today’s announcement on March construction showed that the first quarter of 2017 was up 4.9 percent over the first quarter of 2016. The $1.218 trillion in spending is the highest on record. The trends represented in the number were consistent with past months. Commercial construction was up 12.7 percent. Public construction was down 6.5 percent.

total us construction spending

St. Clair Hospital’s $75 million expansion and renovation project has gone out for CM proposals to PJ Dick, Mascaro, Massaro/Yates, MBM, Mosites, Rycon, and Volpatt. Pittsburgh Theological Seminary selected Jendoco Construction for precon services on its $10-12 million library project. Volpatt Construction landed the $2.35 million Victoria Hall SIM Lab for the University of Pittsburgh. Rycon Construction is about to start work on the first phase of the $2.8 million Assumption Hall renovation at Duquesne University. Bids are due May 4 for the 21,000-plus sq. ft. buildout for global diagnostics/life science company Perkin Elmer at 250 Industry Drive. Bids are being taken by Neyer, Rycon and Turner.
Pete Dozzi Memorial Service
The family of Peter C. Dozzi invites you to join them on Friday, May 5, 2017 at the Duquesne University Power Center (Charles J. Dougherty Ballroom) 600 Forbes Avenue, Pittsburgh, PA 15282 for a memorial celebration and luncheon beginning at 11:00 a.m. Brief remarks will be presented at 12:30 p.m. Please confirm your attendance by email tociaotp@comcast.net

Confidence vs. Data

One of the concepts that the Federal Reserve’s FOMC dicussed in its March meeting was that of “soft data” compared to “hard data” in assessing the economy. With inflation rising again and the labor markets tight, the Fed will raise rates slightly at least three time this year, but the Committee made interesting observations about the actual state of the economy versus the perception.

Soft data is the more frequently-updated economic information that is the result of surveys, like consumer and business confidence or business hiring plans. The surveys of this kind – like the University of Michigan’s Consumer Confidence Index – have soared since the election on the expectation that a Trump Administration would lower taxes and regulatory burdens. Thus far, the administration has struggled but consumers and business owners have reflected little of this in their responses.

At the same time, hard data – like government employment or GDP estimates – is showing that the economy is performing pretty much like it has since the Obama Administration and Congress figured out how to play nicely after the 2013 government shutdown debacle. A look at the figure below shows how this spread between data and emotion looks.

morgan-data

Bidding/contracting news is limited. One K-12 project of note is out to bid, the $14 million Todd Lane Elementary School addition/renovation in Center Valley School District. Massaro has the $2.6 million Johnstown Flood Museum project out to bid, due April 26. Mistick Construction is taking bids on the $30 million Eighth & Penn apartments and Elford Inc. has started construction on the $40 million, 274-unit Village at Cranberry Woods apartments. In Erie, E. E. Austin has been selected as CM for the $110 million Allegheny Health Network renovation of St. Vincent Hospital.

End of Week Roundup

As chaotic as US politics is right now, the economy continues to hum along. Today’s jobs report outperformed the expectations of analysts, with 227,000 new jobs added to payrolls last month. That continued expansion is in contrast to the story in Pittsburgh, which last year added only 4,400 jobs. At Thursday’s Viewpoint presentation – one of the best forecasting events for commercial real estate – Integra Realty Resources’ President Paul Griffith explained how the healthy job growth early in the business cycle has faded to a flat line since 2013. Pittsburgh’s strong economic sectors have been offset by declining employment in energy and manufacturing.

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In project news, Volpatt Construction was awarded the $2.4 million Nursing Unit 5A renovation at St. Clair Hospital. Developer Alphabet City selected Brubach Construction to build its $7 million, 60,000 sq. ft. East Liberty Centre office building. Campus Advantage interviewed Turner, PJ Dick, Continental and Rycon for its $40 million apartment on Forbes Avenue in Oakland. Rycon Construction is underway on the $27 million, 172-unit Emerald on Centre apartments in Shadyside. Sota Construction is taking bids from subcontractors on the renovation of the Allequippa Place apartments and construction of the 49-unit new Wadsworth Street Apartments, roughly $8 million in total construction. And McCaffrey Interests is taking RFP’s next week on the $66 million Terminal Building redevelopment in the Strip District.

Confidence is High

The prospect of lower corporate taxes and less regulation has business swooning at the start of 2017. One of the measures of small business confidence – the National Federation of Independent Businesses index – soared more than 7 points in December to 105.8. That’s the highest since the end of 2004, when the economy took off after an uneven recovery from the 2001 recession.

PNC Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Stu Hoffman gave an equally confident forecast for 2017 (and 2018 for that matter) when he addressed a crowd of NAIOP Pittsburgh/BOMA members this morning at the William Penn. Hoffman liked the chances of tax cuts, stimulus spending and less regulation during this year and forecast that GDP would respond by growing closer to three percent. Hoffman saw that happening in late 2017 and into 2018 – maybe even a quarter or so of 4% growth – assuming the stimulating measures are enacted during the first months of the Trump Administration. He also warned that overplaying trade sanctions could blunt the growth from the stimulus.

dscn1101

BOMA President Tony Young from the Carnegie Museums (left) with PNC’s Stu Hoffman and NAIOP President Dave Weisberg from BNY Mellon.

Confidence in the construction industry has been boosted by the strong year-end activity. In addition, there are a half-dozen or so major projects that are in the process of moving forward in 2017, although few will start construction until afterwards.

UPMC announced its big investment in Hamot in Erie but the healthcare system is also on the verge of an announcement about its direction in the South Hills, where a new hospital or multiple mini-hospitals may be built to serve its patients. Another major South Hills hospital project, the St. Clair Hospital expansion, is getting a redesign but should be put before selected CM’s for proposals before spring. Reports are that the Dick’s HQ expansion is back on the front burner. And Pitt is moving forward with early programming for a new building at the Syria Mosque site that is in the 350,000 sq. ft. range.

A couple of $30 million-plus projects that have been kicking around for a while appear to be heading for a competitive hard bid. Oxford Development is rumored to be close to a major tenant announcement for its Riverfront West project at 3 Crossings. In Oakland, Campus Advantage will be bidding its 300,000 sq. ft. apartment project on Forbes Avenue.

Murland Associates selected Mascaro Construction as contractor for its proposed 97,000 sq. ft., $15-18 million office at 3422 Forbes Avenue. Landau Building Co. was selected as contractor for the $4.5 million Mars Library. Pitt awarded the $3.4 million Barco Law Library project to TEDCO Construction. Chapman Corp. is the apparent successful bidder on the mechanical piece of three major compressor stations for Energy Transfer Partners, in Clarington OH, Majorsville PA and Burgettstown PA.