The Impact of Florence

I got an interesting call yesterday from the local Federal Reserve Bank office asking about the impact of Hurricane Florence on the construction industry. They are trying to figure out the economic effect of the storm. The short answer is that it’s too early, of course, but history gives a little insight into the aftermath. Ike, Katrina and Harvey were similar storms in that they brought massive amounts of water damage. That means much of the damage is uninsured and more difficult to quantify. That also means that the rebuilding will likely stretch out over several years (or longer).

What is different now from 2017 or 2005 is the lack of capacity to rebuild. For building materials, supply is already limited for what will be in highest demand, like lumber, plywood, drywall, and construction equipment. That means there will be price increases, but, with little slack capacity, the availability will be a bigger factor. The same is true for labor. It will take tens of billions to rebuild and repair the flood damage but there will only be so much that can be rebuilt without skilled workers. The winter slowdown in northern cities might provide some labor force, but there is enough construction that there may not be many layoffs this winter. That will certainly be true of Pittsburgh’s construction workforce.

The guess here is that – like with Katrina – the reconstruction in the Carolinas will be stretched out over a number of years.

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Golfers enjoyed a good day Monday at the ACE Mentor outing at Quicksilver. You can contribute to ACE Western PA here.

In project news the Builders Exchange reported on a project that the Turnpike Commission is requesting prequalification to bid. The Southern Beltway maintenance shops are budgeted in the $25 million range and based upon history should go out to bid in the month following the Oct. 24 prequalification due date.

Pittsburgh’s construction industry lost a great guy on Monday. Brian McKay passed away after battling ALS for the past year or so. Brian owned AMB Plumbing & Excavating and was incredibly involved in the industry, serving the Mechanical Contractors Association and the Builders Exchange for many years. He was past president of the MCA and the current president of the PBX board. Brian was a man who quietly helped a lot of people out over the years. He will be missed. Visitation will be held today and tomorrow at Schellhaas in Franklin Park. The details are in Brian’s obituary.

 

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