An Election Day Prediction

In a race that is allegedly too close to call, something as random as the weather can make all the difference in the world. From day one the advantage for the president was high turnout, especially in urban areas with historically low turnout rates in past elections. Good weather doesn’t guarantee good turnout but bad weather almost always tamps down turnout.

At 2:30PM today here’s what the Accuweather national radar map looked like:

radar map election day

The only inclement weather on election day was in the president’s home territory.

I think the outcome will depend more on the supply of voters than the demand of issues so I’m predicting a re-election of President Obama as of 2:30PM on Nov. 6.  Basing an election forecast on the weather is capricious at best so please feel free to lambaste me regardless of the outcome. Here’s an election forecast that I feel more comfortable putting out there: businesses are going to vote with their wallets after the election. For a while anyway, an Obama re-election won’t inspire businesses to invest in construction.

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