OK, now that we’ve had the time to take a deep breath we can look at last Wednesday’s announcement of Shell’s preferred site with a bit more perspective.
First things first. There is no downside to Shell picking the old Horseheads zinc site for their ethane cracker. Regardless of how events unfold from here the Western PA region is better off today than last Tuesday if only for the potential. That said however, it’s important to temper our regional enthusiasm with the knowledge that the decision to proceed with plant construction is still a year or more away and construction itself is at least two years out. The real beneficial impact of the plant – the development of the many downstream industries here – will be years further away.
The acute problem facing the natural gas industry hasn’t changed. Prices are still so low that extraction and processing is a losing proposition right now. It is fortunate for stakeholders in Western PA that the Marcellus Shale formation contains more profitable wet gases like ethane, propane and butane so the drillers will continue in the southwest corner of the state. We’re also lucky to have the oil-laden Utica formation easily accessible in Butler, Beaver and Lawrence counties so that upstream and midstream activities – like fractionation and distribution – will continue to expand.
For the gas industry to fully mature in our region the price will have to increase to its more normal levels, meaning that gas will be at $5-8/MmBtu. The most productive way for that to happen will be for gas to replace fossil fuels, increasing demand while decreasing the dependence on oil as a fuel or coal as an electricity generation source. That will take more investment or energy policy action than is going on right now.
Until something happens to push demand and natural gas prices higher the opening of the Shell cracker facility will remain on the horizon. Of course, it’s better that it’s on the horizon in Beaver Co. than elsewhere.